The Patriots are running away from the rest of the division and need to keep beating down the competition.  The Bills are 2-4 and trying to rebound from 2 painful losses in a row.

When the Patriots have the ball, it will be no mystery what they will try to do.  The Bills allow 117.2 yards rushing per game and 4.2 yards per carry, so look for the Patriots to come out running the football.  RBs Laurence Maroney (332 yards rushing) and Corey Dillon (281 yards rushing) have been running behind one of the best offensvie lines in football and they should give the Bills all kinds of problems.  The offensive line has also been blocking great for Tom Brady when he drops back to pass, as they have only allowed 5 sacks this season.  The Patriots will probably spread the field when passing, as Brady doesn’t really have a favorite target this season.  Brady will go with his best match-up when throwing the ball and will be sure to pick on Terrence McGee, who’s only 5′8″ and has been getting burned lately.

The Bills prefer to run the ball with Willis McGahee (505 yards rushing), but that will be tough against a Patriots defense that only allows 85.6 yards rushing per game and 3.6 yards per carry.  The Patriots do allow alot of yards passing (222.4 yards per game), but will JP Losman (1,121 yards passing) be able to take advantage of that?  Lee Evans has the speed to get deep (36 rec, 419 yards), but Losman will need protection to throw the ball down the field as the Bills have allowed 19 sacks this season.

The Patriots won the first meeting 19-17 in Foxboro, so this could be a closer game than anticipated….but I can’t pick JP Losman to beat Tom Brady in a football game.  The Patriots will win a close game on a mental error by JP Losman….just like the last time they played.

These two guys were not expected to play at the level they have been and it’s lifting the whole defense’s level of play.  Ty Warren has 29 tackles, 2 sacks and a fumble recovery.  Warren also has a safety that won a game against the Dolphins.  Jarvis Green, the other defensive end, has 13 tackles, 4.5 sacks and a fumble recovery.

The Patriots have done pretty well so far this season.  One thing they need to work on is getting rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski to get more elevation on his kicks, as he has had a little problem with blocks.  The defense has been pretty solid so far, especially against the run.  The Patriots only allow 85.6 yards rushing and 3.6 yards per carry.  The Patriots have given up 222.4 yards per game passing, but they don’t give up any points as they only allow 14.8 points per game.

I am more impressed with QB Tom Brady this season than I ever have been before.  He lost his top 2 receivers and Brady still finds a way to get his passing yards.  Brady has 5 receivers with 10 or more catches, but only one receiver (TE Ben Watson) has more than 200 yards.  The Patriots running game has been what is really powering the offense right now.  The Patriots are averaging 139.0 yards rushing per game this season.  Rookie Laurence Maroney (332 rushing yards) and Corey Dillon (281 yards rushing) are providing a wicked one-two punch.

The Patriots have signed WR Jabar Gaffney.  Gaffney will provide depth at wide receiver and he should catch a few passes because Brady likes to use everyone on the roster in the passing game.

The Patriots have done some good things on special teams, but their rookie kicker is having a rough start to his career.  The Patriots have been outstanding covering punts allowing only 3.4 yards per return.  The Patriots need to get a little better covering kick-offs as they have allowed 24.2 yards per return.

Rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski only has connected on 5 of 8 FGs, but he has made all 13 XPTs.  Punter Josh Miller has done a good job with placement on his punts as 36.4% of his kicks have been downed inside the 20 yard line.

Kevin Faulk returns both kick-offs and punts and he’s done a good job this season.  Faulk is averaging 13.5 yards per punt return and 21.0 yards per kick-off return.  Laurence Maroney returned kick-offs at the start of the season and did a good job, averaging 23.5 yards per return….but he has been needed on offense.