The New England Patriots did a decent job on draft day overall.  They got a fine running back and a good kicker to replace Adam Vinatieri.  They also might still hit on a few of the other picks in time.  Here’s a breakdown:

In the first round the Patriots drafted their future workhorse running back.  Laurence Maroney had a great rookie season to start his career and he’s capable of much more.  He played in 14 games and carried the football 175 times for 745 yards (4.3 ypc) with 6 TD runs.  He also caught 22 passes for 194 yards (8.8 avg).  Maroney also returned kick-offs part of the season and did a good job as he returned 28 kickoffs for 783 yards (28.0 avg).

WR Chad Jackson was a need pick for the Patriots and he disappointed a bit.  He played in 12 games (1 start) and caught 13 passes for 152 yards (11.7 avg) with 3 TD grabs.  He also carried the ball 4 times for 22 yards (5.5 ypc).  Jackson also returned one kickoff for 21 yards and 3 punts for 76 yards (25.3 avg).  Time is on Jackson’s side, so there is a chance that he could improve in the coming years.

In the 3rd round the Patriots drafted TE Dave Thomas.  He has the potential to be a starter down the road and the big play he made against the Chargers showed his worth on special teams.  He played in 15 games (3 starts) and caught 11 passes for 159 yards (14.5 avg) with 1 TD catch.

4th round pick Garrett Mills (TE/FB) never saw the field as a rookie.

The other 4th round pick for the Patriots turned out to be a good pick.  Stephen Gostkowski had a few problems early in the season but he settled down as the season went on and made some big kicks under pressure.  He wound up making 20 of 26 FGs (76.9%) and also converted 43 of 44 extra points.

5th round pick Ryan O’Callaghan (G) was a fine pick and a possible future starter for the Patriots.  He played in 11 games and started 6 of them last season.

The 6th round was a mess for the Patriots.  They selected two players that didn’t make the team (Dan Stevenson and Jeremy Mincey) and a NT (LeKevin Smith) that only played in 3 games and made 1 tackle.

7th round pick Willie Andrews looks like he could be a keeper.  The corner played a lot on special teams and wound up with 17 tackles in 15 games. 

 

The Patriots running game was explosive this season.  Corey Dillon & Laurence Maroney made a great pair.  Corey Dillon didn’t carry the ball as much as he has in the past because of Maroney, but it kept him fresh all season long.  Dillon played in every game and carried the ball 199 times for 812 yards (4.1 ypc) with 13 TD runs.  He also caught 15 passes for 147 yards (9.8 avg).  For his career, Dillon has played in 150 games (132 starts) and he’s carried the football 2,618 times for 11,241 yards (4.3 ypc) with 82 TD runs.  He also has caught the ball 244 times for 1,913 yards (7.8 avg) with 7 TD grabs.

Laurence Maroney had a fantastic rookie season.  He played in 14 games and carried the football 175 times for 745 yards (4.3 ypc) with 6 TD runs.  He also caught 22 passes for 194 yards (8.8 avg) with 1 TD grab.

Kevin Faulk also did a good job as the third down back for the Patriots.  He only carried the ball 25 times for 123 yards (4.9 ypc) with 1 TD run.  He also caught 43 passes for 356 yards (8.3 avg) with 2 TD grabs.  For his career, Faulk has played in 106 games (24 starts) and he’s carried the ball 632 times for 2,398 yards (3.8 ypc) with 11 TD runs.  He also has caught 276 passes for 2,435 yards (8.8 avg) with 10 TD grabs.

Heath Evans was the fullback for the Patriots.  He is big and runs hard when given the chance to get his hands on the ball.  He carried the ball 27 times this season for 117 yards (4.3 ypc).  He also caught 7 passes for 34 yards (4.9 avg) with 1 TD catch.  For his career, Evans has played in 89 games (7 starts) and he has carried the ball 112 times for 417 yards (3.7 ypc).  He also has caught 33 passes for 226 yards (6.8 avg) with 1 TD catch.

Patrick Pass is the backup fullback and he didn’t get to play much.  He carried the football 6 times for 21 yards (3.5 ypc) and caught 2 passes for 24 yards this season.  For his career, Pass has played in 78 games (11 starts) and he’s carried the ball 128 times for 526 yards (4.1 ypc) with 3 TD runs.  He also has caught 66 passes for 570 yards (8.6 avg) with 1 TD grab.

This was a game of two halves.  The Patriots dominated the first half as they led 21-6 at the break.  In the second half the Colts came out firing on all cylinders and outscored the Patriots 32-13 to win the game.  This was an odd game as two offensive linemen and a defensive lineman scored TDs.

The Patriots played well on offense, but not quite good enough to advance to the Super Bowl.  Tom Brady had a decent game as he completed 21 of 34 passes for 226 yards with 1 TD pass and 1 interception (on the last play of the game for the Patriots!)  Corey Dillon had a solid game for the Patriots as he carried the ball 7 times for 48 yards (6.9 ypc) with a TD run.  Kevin Faulk had a couple of good runs as he carried the ball 4 times for 27 yards (6.8 ypc).  Laurence Maroney had a poor game for the Pats as he carried the ball 8 times for 13 yards (1.6 avg).  He also fumbled a ball in the endzone that was recovered by starting guard Logan Mankins for a TD in the first quarter.  Brady spread the ball around pretty well so no one really had a big game catching the ball.  Ben Watson led the team with 5 catches for 48 yards.  Reche Caldwell pitched in with 4 grabs for 46 yards.  Jabar Gaffney caught 3 passes for 37 yards including an incredible TD catch.

LB Eric Alexander led the way for the Patriots defense with 11 tackles.  Asante Samuel had a huge play in the second quarter when he stepped in front of Marvin Harrison and picked off the Peyton Manning pass which he returned 39 yards for a TD.  That play gave the Patriots a 21-3 lead in the second quarter.  But the Colts were unstoppable in the second half.  The Colts wound up running the ball 30 times in the game for 125 yards (4.2 ypc).  The Colts also completed 27 of 47 passes for 330 net yards passing.

The Patriots played hard and have nothing to be ashamed about.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=270121011

What the Pats have going for them coming into this AFC title game is what has made them great in the past and what we saw a little more of in the San Diego game. That is, the ability to be more professional and clutch than their opponents; in other words, to play like real champions when it counts.

 That would appear to be the edge for them against the Colts, who have been an “almost” for a long time. I am not the first one to bring up the analogy of Manning vs. Brady to Marino vs. Montana. One guy has all the pretty stats, while the other guy has the Super Bowl rings.

But now Manning has a couple of things going for him that perhaps Marino didn’t, which is a running game that works the way they want it to, and if the last couple of games are any indication, a defense. The patriots do not possess most of the fundamental edges in this matchup. To win they must exploit the Colts’ run defense in a way KC or Baltimore were not able to do.

Personally, I see something wrong physically with Tom Brady. I know he directed the comeback against the Chargers, but he’s got back problems, and three interceptions in that game – that was not like him. He needs to be very close to error-free here.

 

The Colts had better watch out for vets Kevin Faulk and Troy Brown.  Tom Brady loves using these guys when you least expect it.  Kevin Faulk has carried the ball 64 times in his playoff career for 322 yards (5.0 ypc) and has caught 24 passes for 200 yards (8.3 avg) with a TD catch.  Troy Brown has 56 career playoff catches for 662 yards (11.9 avg) with 2 TD grabs.  Both of these guys came up with huge plays in the 4th quarter and are money players so the Colts better account for their whereabouts the whole game on Sunday….or else they will pay for it.

If I were the Colts I would be a little bit worried that Tom Brady is 12-1 in the post-season.  But that’s not the worst part for the Colts as Brady really loves the Colts playing surface.  Brady is a remarkable 23-1 in his career on Artificial Turf.  The amazing thing about that is Brady’s home field is a grass one.  All the numbers in this matchup are pointing to the Patriots winning this football game outright.  So I would think of taking the money line and letting the Sportsbook keep the points.

Unbelievable is the only way to describe the play of the Patriots WRs in the playoffs.  Jabar Gaffney has already caught 18 passes for 207 yards (11.5 avg) and a TD in the playoffs!  During the regular season, he only caught 11 passes for 142 yards (12.9 avg) and a TD.  His transformation to #1 receiver has been amazing to watch and I still can’t believe my eyes when I see him play.

Reche Caldwell has caught 12 passes for 130 yards (10.8 avg) and a TD catch in the playoffs.  Before Caldwell got to the Patriots, he had never caught more than 28 passes in his previous 4 seasons.  It looks like Caldwell has now found a home as he caught 61 passes for 760 yards (12.5 avg) and 4 TD grabs this season.

If these two guys keep playing like this, the Patriots will return to the Super Bowl this season.

The Patriots had alot of great plays turned in by unlikely sources and that’s why they beat the Chargers yesterday.  Rookie TE David Thomas recovered a fumbled punt on the San Diego 31 yard line that led to a FG in the third quarter to bring the Patriots within one point at 14-13.  Roosevelt Colvin intercepted a pass as the Chargers were driving at the end of the third quarter.  But old vet Troy Brown had the biggest play in the football game.  With the Patriots trailing 21-13 and facing a 4th and 5 at the San Diego 41 with barely six minutes left in the game, safety Marlon McCree of the Chargers intercepted a Tom Brady pass, but Troy Brown stripped the ball from him and the Patriots recovered it.  The Patriots went on to tie the game on this drive when Tom Brady hit Reche Caldwell for a 4 yard TD.  Kevin Faulk then took a direct snap from the center and converted the 2-point play.  Then it was time for some Tom Brady magic as he led the Patriots on a 8 play, 72 yard drive to set up rookie Stephen Gostkowski for the game winning 31 yard FG with only 1:10 left in the game.  The Chargers had a short drive to set up for a 54 yard FG to tie, but it fell short.

Tom Brady threw a few bad passes, but he was money when the Patriots really needed him to be.  Brady completed 27 of 51 passes for 280 yards with 2 TD passes and 3 interceptions.  Kevin Faulk carried the ball 6 times for 25 yards, but his big carry was the 2-point conversion to tie the game in the 4th quarter.  The amazing thing for the Patriots has been the emergence of WRs Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell.  The Patriots signed both of these guys off the scrap heap and are now reaping the benefits of that.  Gaffney caught 10 passes for 103 yards and a TD.  Reche Caldwell also had a good game with 7 receptions for 80 yards and a TD.  Troy Brown also caught 5 passes for 39 yards, but the strip of Marlon McCree of the football in the 4th quarter was his greatest contribution.

Tedy Bruschi stepped up like he always does when the games get big and led the Patriots with 11 tackles.  Mike Vrabel also made some big plays with 6 tackles and a sack.  The Patriots had big problems with the Chargers running game as they carried the ball 33 times for 148 yards (4.5 ypc).  They did play well against the pass and were often confusing Philip Rivers in the passing game.  The Chargers completed 14 of 32 passes for 204 net yards passing.

The Patriots are primed to roll into Indy and beat their whipping boy Peyton Manning next week.  The Colts might have beat them in Foxboro earlier this season…but that wasn’t the playoffs.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=270114024

 

This could be an epic battle on Sunday afternoon.  The New England Patriots were an awesome 7-1 on the road, while the Chargers were a dominating 8-0 at home on the season.  Will Marty Schottenheimer open up the offensive playcalling with Philip Rivers struggling lately?  Or will he get ultra conservative in his play calling?  That will be interesting to watch unfold on Sunday as Bill Belichick is a master at confusing young QBs with his defensive gameplanning.

When the Patriots have the ball they will likely test the Chargers run defense which has allowed 100.8 yards rushing (7th in the NFL) with Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney.  The Patriots have to be successful on the ground for two reasons.  1) They want to control the clock   2) They want the Chargers to have to respect the Patriots running game, thus slowing down the Chargers fantastic pass rush to give Tom Brady a fighting chance to find his receivers down the field.  If Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips are living in the Patriots backfield, the Patriots won’t have much of a chance to move the ball.

The Chargers will come out running the ball with LaDainian Tomlinson against the Patriots run defense which only has allowed 94.2 yards rushing per game which was fifth in the NFL this season. Tomlinson did rush for 134 yards and scored 2 TDs in Foxboro last season so the Patriots will be tested big-time.  Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel have a way of stepping up in big games and they will be hitting LT all game long.  If the Patriots can somehow slow LT down and force the Chargers into definate passing downs than the Chargers will be in some trouble.  Antonio Gates will benefit from Rodney Harrison missing this game, so this is one area that the Chargers will have a huge advantage in the game.  The Patriots corners are very tough and Asante Samuel has been an absolute thief on defense so Rivers will have to be very careful when he decides to go downfield with the football.

The Chargers have a slight edge on special teams in this game if it comes down to a kick.

The thing that stands out in this game is the coaches.  Marty Schottenheimer is a fine regular season coach, but he’s only 5-12 in his career in the post season.  Bill Belichick is a genius in the post season as last week’s win over the Jets improved his career post season record to 12-2.

I’m siding with the Patriots in this football game because of the huge edge that the Patriots have in coaching and at the QB position.