The Patriots need a win this weekend or losses by both the Steelers and Ravens, to secure the #1 spot in the AFC Playoffs.  The Patriots can’t rely on Bengals’ and Browns’ upsets this weekend, so they need to beat the Bills.  The Patriots are razor sharp right now as they have won seven games in a row.  The Bills snapped a 7-game losing streak last weekend by thrashing the Broncos 40-14 in Buffalo.  The Bills are going to be confident coming into this game as they beat the Patriots 34-31 earlier this year in Buffalo.  Here is a look at the matchups in this game:

When the Patriots have the ball:  The Patriots are going to come out throwing the ball this weekend.  Tom Brady will likely be looking to attack the weak corners of the Bills with a lot of passes to Wes Welker and Deion Branch.  But, don’t think for a minute that he’s not going to be throwing the ball to TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez a lot in this game.  The Patriots will likely spread some carries out to BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead against a Bills’ D that is allowing 139.1 yards rushing per game and 4.8 yards per carry, if the Bills play extra DBs a lot in this game.

When the Bills have the ball:  The Bills are also going to come out throwing the ball.  The Patriots will have to get some pressure on Bills’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, or he’s going to have a good game throwing the ball.  WR Steve Johnson and David Nelson give the Bills a pair of big receivers that like to get down the field to make plays.  TE Scott Chandler and RB C.J. Spiller are also capable receivers as they do most of their work on short passes.  C.J. Spiller has outstanding speed and he is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, so the Patriots’ front seven is going to get challenged every time he touches the football.

PREDICTION:  PATRIOTS 34, BILLS 27

The Patriots have sent five offensive players, one special teams player and two defensive players to the Pro Bowl.  34-year old QB Tom Brady will be the starting QB for the AFC.  He has played in 15 games for the Patriots so far this year and he has completed 378 of 576 passes (65.6%) for 4,897 yards with 36 TD passes and 11 INTs (105.1 QB Rating).  He has also carried the ball 43 times for 109 yards (2.5 ypc) with 3 TD runs so far this year.  30-year old WR Wes Welker is still Tom Brady’s favorite receiver.  Welker has played in 15 games for the Patriots so far this year and he has caught 116 passes for 1,518 yards (13.1 avg) with 9 TD grabs so far this year.  He has also returned 8 punts for 82 yards (10.3 avg) and he has carried the ball 4 times for 30 yards (7.5 ypc) this year.  22-year old TE Rob Gronkowski has been the best TE on the planet this year.  He has played in 15 games for the Patriots so far this year and he has caught 82 passes for 1,219 yards (14.9 avg) with 15 TD grabs.  Gronkowski has also returned 1 kickoff for 11 yards and he has carried the ball 1 time for 2 yards, and it went for a TD.  29-year old guard Logan Mankins and 34-year old Brian Waters will be the starting guards for the AFC in the Pro Bowl.  They have both started all 15 games for the Patriots so far this year.

32-year old DE Andre Carter was elected to start in the Pro Bowl, but he’s going to miss the game due to injury.  He played in 14 games for the Patriots this year and he had 52 tackles, 10 sacks, 5 tackles for a loss, 2 forced fumble and 1 pass defensed.  30-year old DT Vince Wilfork will also be going to the Pro Bowl as a starter.  He has played in 15 games for the Patriots so far this year and he has 49 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 5 tackles for a loss, 1 forced fumble, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 passes defensed and 2 interceptions.

26-year old WR/S Matthew Slater has made it to the Pro Bowl as a special teams player.  Slater has played in 15 games for the Patriots this year and he has caught 1 pass for 46 yards and returned 3 kickoffs for 54 yards (18.0 avg).  He has also played a lot at safety lately as he has 24 tackles and 1 forced fumble so far this year.

The Patriots have signed 30-year old fullback Lousaka Polite.  Polite played in 16 games (10 starts) for the Dolphins last year and he carried the ball 26 times for 62 yards (2.4 ypc) with 1 TD run.  He also caught 12 passes for 61 yards (5.1 avg) last year.  Polite has now played in 75 games (27 starts) in his first seven years in the NFL and he has carried the ball 95 times for 296 yards (3.1 ypc) with 1 TD run.  He has also caught 41 passes for 233 yards (5.7 avg) with 1 TD grab in his NFL career.  Polite is a good lead blocker, so he will likely only be playing in short yardage situations for the Patriots.

The Patriots have waived 25-year old safety Ross Ventrone.  Ventrone played in 8 games for the Patriots this year and he had 2 tackles.  This is the sixth time that Ventrone has been waived by the Patriots since August….and they keep bringing him back.  Don’t be suprised if he gets signed again by the Patriots this year.

The Patriots were down 17-0 at the half before they woke up and surged to a tough victory last Saturday.  Tom Brady completed 27 of 46 passes for 304 yards with 1 TD pass and 0 INTs.  He also carried the ball 9 times for 17 yards (1.9 ypc) with 2 TD runs in this game.  Stevan Ridley led the way for the Patriots in this game with 64 yards rushing on 13 carries (4.9 ypc).  Danny Woodhead pitched in with 4 carries for 20 yards (5.0 ypc) in this game.  WR Wes Welker (12 catches for 138 yards) and TE Rob Gronkowski (7 rec, 78 yards) led the way in the passing game for the Fins.  WR Deion Branch (3 rec, 37 yards, TD) and TE Aaron Hernandez (4 rec, 36 yards) also pitched in for the Patriots in this game.  The Patriots finished up with 119 yards rushing on 31 carries (3.8 ypc) and they also completed 27 of 46 passes (58.7%) for 281 yards as they had possession of the ball for 30:56.

The defense played really well in the second half for the Patriots in this game.  LB Jared Mayo (13 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 tackle for a loss and 2 QB hits) and CB Devin McCourty (9 tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, 4 passes defensed and 1 interception) led the way for the Patriots on D in this game.  Safety James Ihedigbo (7 tackles, 1 tackle for a loss) and LB Rob Ninkovich (6 tackles and 1 sack) also had solid games for the Patriots.  The Dolphins finished up with 115 yards rushing on 27 carries (4.3 ypc) and they also completed 17 of 33 passes (51.5%) for 266 yards.  The Patriots are now 12-3 on the season.

The Patriots have won six games in a row and they are currently the top seed in the AFC as far as the playoffs are concerned.  The Patriots whacked the Dolphins 38-24 in Miami in the season opener, but that was a long time ago.  The Dolphins beat the Bills on the road last weekend and they have now won 5 of their last 7 games.  Here is a look at the matchups in this game:

When the Patriots have the ball:  The Patriots are going to be bombs away tomorrow as they are going to be throwing the ball all over the field.  TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Wes Welker and TE Aaron Hernandez are going to be attacking the Dolphins down the field in this game.  The only real hope of the Dolphins slowing down the Patriots’ passing game is if they can mount a good pass rush.  The Patriots will run the ball a little bit tomorrow to make the Dolphins pay for overplaying the passing game.

When the Dolphins have the ball:  The Patriots are going to have to go all out to stop RB Reggie Bush, as he rushed for 203 yards last weekend against the Bills.  The Dolphins are a very physical team in the running game, so the Patriots’ front seven is going to have tighten up the chinstraps.  The Dolphins have the weapons at WR and TE to give the Patriots problems if QB Matt Moore has time to throw the ball.  Moore is a game manager type for the most part, but he could air the ball out down the field to Brandon Marshall a few times this Saturday.

PREDICTION:  PATRIOTS 34, DOLPHINS 26

The Patriots have signed 29-year old safety Vincent Fuller.  Fuller played in 1 game for the Lions earlier this year but he didn’t have any tackles.  Fuller has now played in 74 games in his first six years in the NFL and he has 163 tackles, 16 passes defensed, 6 interceptions (4 returned for a TD), 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery and 7 tackles for a loss.  The Patriots need help at the back end of the D and Fuller has been a playmaker in the past, so he could be just what the doctor ordered.

UPDATE:  (12/23/2011) – The Patriots have waived Vincent Fuller.

The Patriots have lost 32-year old starting DE Andre Carter for the rest of the 2011 season due to a quad injury.  Carter played in 14 games for the Patriots this year and he had 52 tackles, 10 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 pass defensed and 5 tackles for a loss.  He has now played in 163 games in his first 11 years in the NFL and he has 494 tackles, 76 sacks, 17 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 23 passes defensed and 47 tackles for a loss.  This is a HUGE loss for the Patriots going forward as Carter was their best pass rusher.

The Patriots were going to give Tim Tebow a chance to beat them in the 4th quarter today.  The Patriots led 34-16 heading into the 4th quarter and they never really were threatened by the Broncos the rest of the way.  Tom Brady completed 23 of 34 passes for 320 yards with 2 TD passes and 0 INTs.  He also carried the ball 6 times for 2 yards (0.3 ypc) with 1 TD run.  Stevan Ridley led the way on the ground for the Patriots in this game with 65 yards rushing on 11 carries (5.9 ypc).  Danny Woodhead was also effective with 40 yards rushing on 7 carries (5.7 ypc) with 1 TD run.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a rough time today with 10 carries for 17 yards (1.7 ypc) with a TD run and he also caught 2 passes for 32 yards.  TE Aaron Hernandez led the way through the air for the Patriots in this game with 129 yards receiving on 9 catches (14.3 avg) with 1 TD grab.  He also carried the ball 1 time for 16 yards yesterday.  TE Rob Gronkowski (4 rec, 53 yards), WR Wes Welker (4 rec, 41 yards) and Chad Ocho Cinco (1 rec, 33 yards, TD) also pitched in for the Patriots in the passing game.  The Patriots finished up with 141 yards rushing on 36 carries (3.9 ypc) and they also completed 23 of 34 passes (67.6%) for 310 yards as they had possession of the ball for 33:41.

The defense was terrible against the run, but pretty good against the pass in Denver yesterday.  LB Jared Mayo (8 tackles), safety James Ihedigbo (6 tackles) and safety Sergio Brown (6 tackles) led the way for the Patriots on D in this game.  LB Rob Ninkovich (4 tackles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for a loss, 1 QB hit and 1 fumble recovery), DE Mark Anderson (3 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 tackles for a loss, 2 QB hits and 1 fumble recovery) and LB Dane Fletcher (fumble recovery) also made big plays for the Patriots in this game.  The Broncos finished up with 252 yards rushing on 31 carries (8.1 ypc) and they also completed 11 of 23 passes (47.8%) for 141 yards.  The Patriots are now 11-3 on the year.

These are two red hot teams and they both need this game.  The Patriots have won five games in a row now and they are trying to get the top seed in the AFC.  The Broncos have won 7 of their last 8 games, putting them atop of the AFC West.  Here is a look at the matchups in this game:

When the Patriots have the ball:  The Patriots are going to come out throwing the ball in this game.  The Broncos are going to have to get a good pass rush on Tom Brady or they are going to be in big trouble.  Brady will look to exploit the safeties of the Broncos by throwing the ball a lot to TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.  By attacking the Broncos’ D with the TEs, the corners will have to single cover WRs Wes Welker and Deion Branch, which could also trouble the Broncos on D.  The Patriots will give the ball to BenJarvus Green-Ellis once in a while, just to keep the Broncos’ D honest.

When the Broncos have the ball:  The Broncos might loosen up the play calling a little bit in this game.  They are still going to be a run first team with Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow carrying the load.  The Patriots are giving up 107.3 yards rushing per game and 4.3 yards per carry so far this year.  The Patriots are going to have to find a way to contain Tim Tebow in the pocket, where he is much less effective.  His favorite two WRs are Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, so the Patriots will have to pay them special attention tomorrow.

PREDICTION:  PATRIOTS 34, BRONCOS 20